Like any other Blue Jays fan, I can easily convince myself that next year will be better. They will have Halliday for the full season-- we hope. Rios will hit more home runs. Hudson will not get injured. Koskie won't strike out as often. Wells will pick it up a bit in April and May.
Dream on-- a rational person can only draw one conclusion from the last 10 years of statistics: another 3rd place finish.
October 4, 2005
Where the Blue Jays will finish in 2006:
Third.
Where the Blue Jays will finish in 2007:
Third.
Where the Blue Jays will finish in 2008:
Third.
Where the Blue Jays will finish in 2009:
Third.
Have you noticed? The Yankees finished first in the American League East, Boston finished second, and the Toronto Blue Jays finished third. And Cleveland is making run at the Central division. And Atlanta owns the National League East.
Quick-- now tell me what year this is?
1994? 1995? 1996? 1997 1998? 1999? 2000? 2001? 2002? 2003? 2004? All of the above?
Pretty well all of the above, with a few minor exceptions. The American League East has been fossilized for about 10 years, from the last labour disruption in 1994 to now. In almost every season, it's been Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays.
You would think the fans would be catching on by now. Oh no. They jam the stadiums every week, paying $35 or more per ticket, to see what they have been led to believe is a contest between competitive baseball clubs for an attainable prize, the playoffs, and baseball glory.
Except-- wait a minute-- fans are not showing up in the same numbers in Cleveland or Baltimore, and they haven't been showing up in great numbers in Toronto for the past few years either, and Tampa Bay, of course, is a lost cause.
If, in 1995, you would have told these fans that their team was going to finish in the same position for the next ten years, every single year, without fail, I doubt most of them would have bothered.
So what's happened? Why is the season fixed? And it is fixed, without a doubt. Unless you really want to argue that the same five teams finishing in the same sequence ten years in a row is a cosmic coincidence. It isn't. The game is now fixed because owners are smarter than they used to be and money is now the only factor. Owners used to squander a lot of money on washed-up over-the-hill over-rated low-average high-strikeout sluggers. But owners have gotten smarter. They trust their baseball men and scouts more and their own sentiments less.
Admittedly, the World Series itself is still up for grabs, at least, by one of the teams pre-selected for the playoffs. You can buy a regular season championship, but nobody has enough money to guarantee that your ringers will provide an optimum performance during a seven-game series. Ask Atlanta or the Yankees. The team that puts together the best confluence of talent and opportunity and determination over a five or seven game stretch will win each series. But money does determine whether, over 160 games, you finish with enough wins to play in the post season, with very rare exceptions.
I am telling you, Blue Jays fans, that the Blue Jays, for all their improvements this year, are going to finish 3rd or even 4th next year. Baltimore will finish 4th or 3rd. The Yankees will probably finish in first again, and Boston in second. And Cleveland will probably take the Central with Chicago a close second. Oakland and Anaheim will battle over the West.
In the National League East, Atlanta will finish in first, and Philadelphia and Florida will argue over second. St. Louis will contend again in the Central and Houston will again finish in second.
Does the league think there is any problems with this? Does it think fans will lose interest in a league in which the final standings are determined, generally, by team revenues, and where those revenues are a relatively fixed amount?
Not as long as you and I keep buying tickets.
Copyright © 2005 Bill Van Dyk All rights reserved.