As I write... the Blue Jays are leading the Angels 7-0 after two innings.
The devastating offense continues. ..
Almost all of the columnists who feel that the Blue Jays are not for real
insist they have had a very easy schedule so far-- they haven't had to face
any teams from their own division. Except Baltimore. (Which was
picked by some pundits to contend this year.)
Among the other teams they faced: Detroit, Minnesota, Cleveland,
Oakland, Texas, and the White Sox. All of these teams except
Cleveland and Oakland are at or near .500. Kansas is in first place
and is the only team to win a series from the Blue Jays this year.
Soft schedule? Maybe. But last year, the Blue Jays finished with
an 86-76 record largely because they lost to inferior teams while doing
relatively well against the better teams, like Boston and New York (.500
combined).
Managing Middles
Sometimes late in a close game you will see a manager position his
infielders so that they are "guarding the line". Why? Allegedly,
to prevent doubles. Well, that's a good idea, isn't it? So why
not do it all the time?
Think about it. Why not do it all the time, if it's a good
idea?
Because it's not a good idea. Because everybody knows that you will
give up more singles and get less outs and ultimately give up more runs if
you do that.
So, are managers saying that they are willing to give up an out in the late
innings of a close game in order to reduce the number of doubles that are
hit against them? That's crazy. Yes, it is crazy.
I suspect that this move is just another case of the manager having to
manage because... what else is he going to do? Go out onto the field
and catch a fly ball? Hit a homer? Double-off a potential
stealer?
No-- he can't do that. So the manager, feeling an overwhelming
compulsion to do something, anything, will make a stupid move like a
sacrifice bunt, intentional walk, or 'have his infielders "guard the line".
Remember what Keith Richard said when he was asked once why he didn't sing
more. "Then what would Mick do?"
As of today, the Toronto Blue
Jays are 9 games above 500. That's a remarkable start.
Baseball is unlike hockey and basketball in this
respect: April matters. The Blue Jays could play .500 baseball the
rest of the season and still have a good shot at the Wild Card. In
fact, last year the Jays did pretty well play .500 most of the season--- but
they didn't have a 19-10 start to play with.
Most baseball writers that I have scanned think the Blue Jays are not for
real. They point to their relatively easy schedule, and the fact that
some players, like Kevin Millar and Marco Scutaro, are performing above
their career norms.
Partly true. It is also true that one of the
reasons that Baltimore and Detroit and Cleveland and Minnesota are seen as
"weaker" opponents is that they were beaten by the Blue Jays, and the Blue
Jays do not have a lot of big names in their line-up. Ever heard of
Adam Lind? Aaron Hill? Lyle Overbay? Travis Snider?
Rob Barajas?
On the other hand... Blue Jays'
pitching has been average, at best. Last year, it was the best
pitching staff in the majors. Unfortunately, they lost A. J.
Burnett to free agency, and two very promising talents, Shaun Marcum and
Dustin McGowan, are injured. On the plus side, rookie Ricky Romero has
been impressive-- now he's out with a muscle pull. Jesse Litsch,
also on the DL, and Scott Richmond have been solid. Rookie Brett
Cecil gave up one earned run in six innings as a fill-in fifth starter.
Their relievers have been excellent, but that's nothing new: no relief corps
has been better than the Blue Jays' over the past three years. The
weak spot: B. J. Ryan, who has nothing so far this year. One hopes and
prays the Blue Jays don't waste a month trying to figure out if he is going
to get it back-- not with Scott Downs pitching the way he has.
I think the Blue Jays have a shot, mainly because their
pitching is likely to improve with the return of Romero and Litsch, and
possibly Marcum. Tallet will then be available to the bullpen again,
which improves that area. Or maybe not. In his past two starts,
13 innings, Tallet has allowed one run.
Yes,
Scutaro is not likely to maintain his current pace, and Rolen and Overbay
will probably settle into an average average average, and Well's hasn't
convinced me that he is a real star who can carry the team for a few days
once in a while.
But Alex Rios might yet find his stroke.
Barajas has also been knocking the ball silly the
past month and that is not likely to continue, but they will get some
production out of him.
Aaron Hill is a solid
20 HR .290 hitter. Maybe he has a good year and bits 28 HR,
.315.
You know, I don't see it. I don't
understand why the Blue Jays suddenly lead both leagues in most offensive
categories. Where's it coming from? Not from Wells or Rios or
Overbay. But whenever I hear someone say their balloon is about
to pop, I look at the team and think-- maybe not. In the last few
years, it has not been unusual for a team to come out of nowhere and make a
run at the World Series. The White Sox. The Rays.
Philadelphia. Florida. Anaheim.
As a fan, I have high hopes for a team that is
currently performing well. I suspect that they will come down to earth
to some extent once they face better teams this month.
Last year, the Blue Jays were .500 against the
Yankees and Red Sox. If they do that again this year, and if the Rays
and Orioles continue to struggle, there is a real chance the Jays will take
at least the Wild Card.
So I'm predicting 94 wins and the wild card.
And if they get that, anything's possible because Halladay remains one of
the two or three best money pitchers in the American League right now, and
an excellent bullpen, solid defense, and a couple of good hitters can take
you a long way in the playoffs.
One more
possibility: Adam Lind may be the next great power hitter in the American
League. Everyone starts somewhere.
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© Bill Van Dyk
2009 All Rights Reserved
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