Update September 2011: as you may have noticed Jeter has brought his
batting average up to a respectable .290 or so. However, he still only
has 4 home runs, and not much else to show for it. So, essentially, my
assessment here holds.
Other exhausted talents: I'm glad to see Tampa Bay struggling after signing
Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon. Had the Blue Jays signed either of
them, I would have been seriously depressed.
The Blue Jays 2011 version have a respectable club. Everything
depends on which way the talent breaks: they have a lot of young players,
especially starting pitchers, who could be fabulous, or merely good.
Romero, Murrow, Cecil, and Drabek -- nobody knows if these are tomorrow's
stars or tomorrow's 4th and 5th starters on average teams.
They play in what continues
to be the toughest division in baseball, a disproportionate share of their
games against three of the best teams in the American League.
According to baseball writers, Boston will win the World Series, the New
York Yankees will struggle with Tampa Bay for the wild card, and even the Orioles are ready to move up.
So the Blue Jays, in 2011, are up against four of the best teams in
baseball.
I'm appreciative of the fact. The Jays are entertaining to watch
lately. But they are up against a few very good, very well-financed
teams, so I doubt they will finish any higher-- or lower-- than 3rd, again.
And again. And again.
Their only real hope is that Boston and the Yankees have serious
pitching problems-- and they might.
The American League Eastern Division is probably, this year, the
division of death.
The idea that Derek Jeter can somehow shorten his stroke or change his batting
stance in order to restore some of his lost effectiveness is ridiculous.
Baseball players, like most athletes, achieve success by optimizing every
aspect of their game until they are competitive with the best athletes in
the world in their sport. This happens in their late teens
and early 20's. By the age of 30, most athletes are in decline.
There is nothing for Jeter to find in his batting stroke or his stance,
or his head, or his diet, or his preparation, or his discipline, or
anything. Jeter lost his real effectiveness years ago. Like Cal Ripken, he was allowed to trade his moderately decent offensive skills for a
few more cycles in the field and the illusion of defense. The
illusion of defense is easy. Nobody knows if you should have
had that runner at first but didn't because you were too slow, or your arm
was too weak. Nobody knows if you should have reached that
ground ball to the left that got through. Nobody knows if you should
have been able to turn that double play. All the average fan knows if
whether or not you fumbled the ball, or if you got a hit. Even
mediocre shortstops can catch most of the balls they can reach.
Because I am a Blue Jays fan, I hope the Yankees do everything they can
to gratify the peanut galleries and keep Jeter out there, day after day
after day, at
shortstop. I promise you: he will come out of his slump if you give
enough at bats.
Blue Jays fans understand the difference a less famous but more talented
defensive player can be: Devon White replacing Lloyd Moseby. It was a
revelation. I didn't know balls hit into the alleys could be caught.
That said-- please don't come back at me with "well, Jeter's having a pretty
good season, isn't he? The adjustment worked." Jeter had a sub-par season last
year. Most players who have a sub-par season-- like most teams that have a sub-par
season-- will bounce back to some extent. That won't change the essential equation:
Jeter's defensive effectiveness is long gone, and .280 with 18 homes runs won't obviate
the Yankees' need for a new shortstop.
I would also bet that long-time, faithful Yankee fans will be a little startled when
the new kid gets to play. Habituated to Jeter, they will be a bit surprised to see
ground balls that they thought were going through snatched up and turned into outs.
