The idea that Derek Jeter can somehow shorten his stroke or change his batting stance in order to restore some of his lost effectiveness is ridiculous.
Baseball players, like most athletes, achieve success by optimizing every aspect of their game until they are competitive with the best athletes in the world in their sport. This happens in their late teens and early 20’s. By the age of 30, most athletes are in decline.
There is nothing for Jeter to find in his batting stroke or his stance, or his head, or his diet, or his preparation, or his discipline, or anything. Jeter lost his real effectiveness years ago. Like Cal Ripken, he was allowed to trade his moderately decent offensive skills for a few more cycles in the field and the illusion of defense. The illusion of defense is easy. Nobody knows if you should have had that runner at first but didn’t because you were too slow, or your arm was too weak. Nobody knows if you should have reached that ground ball to the left that got through. Nobody knows if you should have been able to turn that double play. All the average fan knows if whether or not you fumbled the ball, or if you got a hit. Even mediocre shortstops can catch most of the balls they can reach.
Because I am a Blue Jays fan, I hope the Yankees do everything they can to gratify the peanut galleries and keep Jeter out there, day after day after day, at shortstop. I promise you: he will come out of his slump if you give enough at bats.
Blue Jays fans understand the difference a less famous but more talented defensive player can be: Devon White replacing Lloyd Moseby. It was a revelation. I didn’t know balls hit into the alleys could be caught.
That said– please don’t come back at me with “well, Jeter’s having a pretty good season, isn’t he? The adjustment worked.” Jeter had a sub-par season last year. Most players who have a sub-par season– like most teams that have a sub-par season– will bounce back to some extent. That won’t change the essential equation: Jeter’s defensive effectiveness is long gone, and .280 with 18 homes runs won’t obviate the Yankees’ need for a new shortstop.
I would also bet that long-time, faithful Yankee fans will be a little startled when the new kid gets to play. Habituated to Jeter, they will be a bit surprised to see ground balls that they thought were going through snatched up and turned into outs.
Update September 2011: as you may have noticed Jeter has brought his batting average up to a respectable .290 or so. However, he still only has 4 home runs, and not much else to show for it. So, essentially, my assessment here holds.
Other exhausted talents: I’m glad to see Tampa Bay struggling after signing Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon. Had the Blue Jays signed either of them, I would have been seriously depressed.
The Blue Jays 2011 version have a respectable club. Everything depends on which way the talent breaks: they have a lot of young players, especially starting pitchers, who could be fabulous, or merely good. Romero, Murrow, Cecil, and Drabek — nobody knows if these are tomorrow’s stars or tomorrow’s 4th and 5th starters on average teams.
They play in what continues to be the toughest division in baseball, a disproportionate share of their games against three of the best teams in the American League. According to baseball writers, Boston will win the World Series, the New York Yankees will struggle with Tampa Bay for the wild card, and even the Orioles are ready to move up. So the Blue Jays, in 2011, are up against four of the best teams in baseball.
I’m appreciative of the fact. The Jays are entertaining to watch lately. But they are up against a few very good, very well-financed teams, so I doubt they will finish any higher– or lower– than 3rd, again. And again. And again.
Their only real hope is that Boston and the Yankees have serious pitching problems– and they might.
The American League Eastern Division is probably, this year, the division of death.
3000 Hits
3000 hits, by the way, is really remarkable but not for the reasons most people think it is: what is remarkable is that these players– decent hitters, all– were so successful in avoiding serious injuries. You have to be good to get 3000 hits but you also have to be pretty lucky. Chances are pretty good that there are more than a few hitters with 2000 career hits or less who were actually better players than Derek Jeter… when they weren’t injured.