[2019-03: I retain this post as a monument to my own over-confidence in my views of the 2016 election. I will note that I had assumed Bill Clinton would campaign prominently for Hilary; he did not (he wasn’t wanted). And no one, of course, knew what James Comey would do.]
Remember that Bill Clinton was really America’s first black president. And he will be campaigning for Hillary. And I doubt that even the Republicans would dare to make him a target after their last attempt clearly backfired. Bill Clinton currently sits at a 75% approval rating. That is really quite extraordinary.
Oh…. they probably will.
Oddly, one of the better possible Republican candidates is none of the above– not any of the most prominent, caustic initiates. It’s Ohio Governor John Kasich, former managing director of– get this– Lehman Brothers (until the collapse in in2008).
Kasich voted for the 1994 Assault Rifle Ban.
Kasich was chairman of the House Budget Committee in 1993 and helped the Clinton Administration create the first and only budget surplus in 50 years.
He’s a bit of Scott Walker: he tried to pass a restrictive collective bargaining law but Ohio voters resoundingly defeated the proposal.
In 2011, he produced a balanced budget, without chicanery.
He signed on to the expansion of Medicare benefits under Obamacare. He ordered rape crisis centers to lie to women about the option of abortion. Let’s not be politically correct about describing this: he ordered them to lie.
He is also a raging hypocrite on “pro-life” issues: he had eight people executed.
But here’s the thing: the Tea Party, which had initially supported him, repudiated him in 2014 and tried to run someone against him in the primaries. Why, for heaven’s sake? After all, God told Kasich to run. Well, he raised some taxes, including a sales tax, in order to balance the budget. I don’t know what the Tea Party is upset about: increasing the sales tax while cutting income taxes has the net result of shifting more of the tax burden onto the poor. Why, that’s the cornerstone of Republican economic policy.
No greater compliment hath any Republican than repudiation by the Tea Party.
I have no idea of how many people he wants to die in the Middle East so the U.S. can look like it has some authority in the region. Perhaps he doesn’t really have a sophisticated understanding of international issues– but he has more gravitas than Scott Walker or Marco Rubio.
Anyway, Kasich has virtually no chance: he raised taxes. Republicans get absolutely, idiotically, insanely hysterical about anyone ever raising taxes by even the slightest amount.
Addendum
When will voters get tired of the standard Republican Strategy?
- Vow to cut taxes during the campaign.
- Win the election.
- Cut taxes on the rich without cutting spending on any programs (because that will make some tax-payers realize that worthwhile government programs actually cost money).
- Run up the deficit (like Reagan and Bush Jr.).
- Blame the deficit on Democratic spending policies and campaign against deficits.
And here’s where the magic comes in. The solution is not to cut programs (because some voters like Social Security, Education, and Medicare, for example) but– wait for it– to cut taxes even more. Because, in the fantasy world of Republican economic models, the tax cuts will generate a fabulous outbreak of economic growth, which will increase tax revenues and balance the budget. Without any pain or sacrifice!
I’m pretty sure most Republicans don’t really believe this, but they are more than happy to have Bill Clinton or someone like him come along and balance the budget again eventually so they can run against taxes again, cut taxes for the rich again, and leave the deficits to the Democrats to clean up.