Before everyone rushes to proclaim Pierre Poilievre the inevitable Prime-Minister of Canada, let’s consider a few inconvenient facts.
By the time Canada gets around to the next federal election, Trump will have been in the White House for at least 6 months.
Now, it is possible that he may prove to be a smashing success, leading a unified government that reduces inflation (something Biden already did for him), low unemployment, increased manufacturing, lower housing costs, and peace in the middle east. Poilievre, glistening with overflowing luster as the Canadian Trump, glides to a smashing victory, reducing the Liberals to two seats.
It is more likely that Trump’s idiotic policies lead to resurgent inflation, high interest rates, less trade, reduced manufacturing, increased trade deficits, ridicule from foreign leaders, and a circus of bickering party members sabotaging their own party’s administration from the House.
Suppose the Liberals, with a new leader– likely, Mark Carney– provide a engaging contrast. Suppose he cleverly distances himself from Trudeau’s murky political sloganeering and tepid policy initiatives and stakes out a new course of his own.
The thing is, I don’t think most Canadians actually like Pierre Poilievre. They say they will vote for him because they despise Justin Trudeau, but I rarely hear anyone say that they will vote for Poilievre because they like him. There will be debates. I doubt that Poilievre charms the pants off anyone in these debates, if he is genuinely challenged by a more formidable Liberal candidate.
Don’t forget that Quebec has a lot of seats, and the PQ might or might not take a lot of them.
The NDP, as long as they retain Singh as their leader, will be a non-factor. Singh has lost almost all of his credibility, even among people like me who used to often vote NDP because, well, they used to have the good leaders like Ed Broadbent and Jack Layton.
It’s not likely, but it’s possible we could end up, in Canada, with another minority government.
The overwhelming consensus among political commentators right now is the Poilievre will win a decisive majority in the next election. That is the kind of uniformity that raises my suspicions.
It reminds me of the belief that Hilary Clinton would crush Donald Trump.
Poilievre was recently interviewed by Jordan Peterson.
Peterson draws fans who are searching for meaning in life and want to learn from someone they see as a great thinker, and his huge social media reach makes him a coveted interview for right-wing politicians. From Here.
Peterson is not a great thinker. He reminds me of Malcolm Gladwell (though they have opposite political dispositions): smug and pompous writers who devise compelling anecdotes that cherry-pick facts and prove nothing but serve to assure miscreants that they’re really smarter than educated, competent people.
Peterson recently interviewed the neo-fascist Brit Tommy Robinson, a far-right rabblerouser known for inciting mobs against immigrants in the UK and calling Islam a “mental disorder”. Robinson’s X account was restored recently by Elon Musk, after he had been barred for his inflammatory anti-immigrant rhetoric.
So Poilievre is happy to be hosted by an enabler of a very far right activist who is currently in Cyprus at a five-star hotel hiding out from an arrest warrant.
Poilievre told Peterson that young women just can’t wait to get pregnant and take up domestic chores again, after years of tiresome feminists lecturing them about equality and professional achievements. He also wants to boost energy production to serve the mega-corporations lust for AI processing.
Poilievre thinks climate activists are “loons”.
Poilievre is extremely confident at the moment. He is probably supremely disappointed that he won’t have Trudeau to run against– perhaps for good reason.
I don’t think most Canadians have looked closely at the man. And I suspect that once they do, they will discover that he does not have the charisma he himself thinks he has at the moment.