When Bitcoin first appeared, I welcomed it. Why? Because at the time it appeared, I had just been involved in organizing an event in Montreal (2000) that attracted attendees from all over the world. Each of them had to pay a small fee to attend, which they had to send to the organizing committee to be deposited in a bank and then used to pay for the facilities and the talent at the event.
I thought– this should be easy, in today’s world, with the internet and all that.
I was wrong.
Many of the attendees actually mailed cash, in envelopes, to pay for their tickets. Really? Why?! Why couldn’t they just go to their banks and direct them to send the money electronically, from their accounts to the organizing committee’s? What was so hard about that?
Well they could. But the bank-pimps demanded a lot of money to do something that naive me thought could not possibly cost very much to do. The cost of sending money directly from their banks in Europe to my bank, BMO, in Canada was ridiculously, absurdly prohibitive.
WTF!
So the idea of Bitcoin, a currency that could bypass the banks and be used to purchase items through the internet without incurring outlandish surcharges sounded like a very good one. I envisioned a world in which people buy and sell and get paid with this digital currency with no deposit fees or monthly bank fees or transaction fees or other such bullshit. You do some work for a company, it deposits bitcoin in your bitcoin account (managed from your computer or smartphone) and you go buy your groceries or some shoes or a car and transfer bitcoin to the vendor and nobody pays the pimp.
It never happened.
A brief diversion: I set up an account with Coinbase to purchase about $3,000 worth of bitcoin many years ago– I forget when exactly but it was before 2010. Bitcoin at the time was worth about $30 each. Yes, $30 for ONE Bitcoin. I figured I could afford to lose $3,000 if it all went bad and I wanted to understand Bitcoin and the blockchain. For unknown reasons, I was never able to connect my Coinbase account to my bank account and complete the transaction. I didn’t feel strongly about it at the time so I gave up.
If I had succeeded, and kept the bitcoin, I would have, today, probably about 100 Bitcoin now worth about $7 million.
More likely, I would have sold part of it much earlier, but I had planned to keep about half for the long term.
Anyway, that’s what happened. I mean that in a broad sense: that’s what happened. Bitcoin became something other than a replacement for currency. Nobody today buys anything with Bitcoin (for all practical purposes). What they do is buy Bitcoin to see if it goes up, if they can make some money.
You can make money buying Bitcoin if you buy it low and sell high. That’s it. It has no other practical value, and even as an investment, it doesn’t have any real value, except for hackers who plant trojans on your computer and lock up your data unless you pay them, and kidnappers, and other criminals.
If Bitcoin is merely an entity of speculation, it is gambling. It is a Ponzi scheme that only works as long as there is a continuous supply of suckers to perpetuate the demand. The sustained viability of Bitcoin as a financial entity fundamentally depends on deception. A sufficient number of customers must believe that it will continue to increase in value.
Inevitably, a number of investors will decide that it has peaked and will want to cash out before it crashes. And it will crash. It has already crashed several times. It is likely to crash more often as more and more ill-informed investors jump onto the bandwagon.
In the late 1920’s, an investor (some claim it was Joseph P. Kennedy) was getting his shoes shined and the shoeshine boy started chatting with him about the stocks he had invested in and offering him tips. The shoeshine boy! That was when, according to the anecdote, Kennedy decided to get out, because he realized that the market was being driven by foolish investors who were essentially gambling– not investing.
It’s not clear if the story is true but the point is well-taken.
When I say “suckers” I don’t mean that in a specific sense. Some of the people buying vast amounts of Bitcoin are indeed very, very smart. They understand what is happening, the same way a croupier at a casino understands what is happening. Some people will become exceedingly rich from cryptocurrencies (there are now lots of them, including, ridiculously– absurdly– $Trump!!)
The meme coin, known as $Trump, was launched by the president on Jan. 17 and quickly surged, reaching a peak of over $14.5 billion in overall market value by Jan. 19, the day before his inauguration. It has since slumped by two-thirds. From Here.
If there was a more obvious sign that the Trump administration is going to be absolutely rife with corruption, I haven’t heard it. The fact that Trump is endorsing and even selling crypto currencies is a tell. This administration is out to facilitate looting on a scale we haven’t seen since Coolridge.