Tag: baseball

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Method Umpires

Method-actors can be very annoying, especially to the other members of a movie crew, or even the other actors. You don’t matter, Laurence Olivier. You don’t matter sound-guy. You don’t matter director. I must commune with my inner-self, draw on my child-hood memories and experiences, and connect my personal emotional life to the artistic representation of this character’s inner life. Stand back and wait. I’ll let you know when I’m ready. You philistines really have no business deciding when I need to get in front of a camera.

Angel Hernandez had the opportunity to review High Definition footage of a double off the wall Wednesday, May 8th, in a game between Oakland and Cleveland. It was quickly evident to millions of viewers that the ball was not a double: it struck a pipe railing above the yellow stripe that demarcates the field of play, therefore it was a home run. Hernandez however, for reasons that no one has been able to explain, called it a double.

Hernandez is a method umpire. After the game, he prepared for his role as defender of the ineffable perfection of umpires by drawing upon his arrogant inner ego and connecting it with his artistic representation of immutable authority: I am the umpire. I am never wrong. When the media asked him about the call, he refused to allow anyone to record his answer. Then he refused to provide an answer. He was so deep into his role, that his other personality, that of a rational human being, had been completely submerged by the time the media had tucked away their microphones.

By the Way

David Ortiz, at 37, is hitting better than last year or the year before.

Honest– it’s the winter conditioning program. Really.

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The Long Lost NHL Code of Humble Celebrations

Are there people who think it’s really cool when a batter like David Ortiz stands in the batter’s box and admires his own hit? Even when it doesn’t go out. And it hits the wall in left-center field and stays in, and the delay cost Boston a base, as it did tonight against the Jays?

It’s repulsive. I hope I never see a Blue Jay do it.

I once copied a bunch of old video tapes of NHL hockey from the 1970’s to DVD for a friend at work. These were tapes of games from 30-40 years ago. The most striking thing about hockey then compared to now? When a player scored a goal, he modestly skated back to his bench, or to center ice, and his team-mates practically had to chase him down to be able to pat him on the back and congratulate him.

It was considered unseemly back then for a player to open celebrate his own achievements.

Who likes this showmanship, this preening, arrogant posturing? Are there fans out there who thrill to Ortiz’s snarling self-satisfaction? There was a near-brawl in Anaheim in late July when Jared Weaver reacted to some show-boating by Carlos Guillen by nearly beaning Alex Avila. In the head. With a fast ball.

He shouldn’t have done it. But why is there so little comment about the showboating?

I freely admit it: I hold a minority position here.  Most people I know love the showboating.  They are wrong.

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Posada Snit

Wow– here it is, in the flesh: you fans paying $100 a pop to watch the Yankees play– you won’t mind if we trot out some washed up old-timer to take a few hacks during a real game do you? Just so Jim Bowden can feel good about himself.

Jorge Posada is batting .165. Jorge Posada is batting .165. Jorge Posada is batting .165.

30 strikeouts in 109 at bats.

.165.

Furthermore, he makes about $15 million this year. Batting .165.

He does have 6 home runs. So let’s be fair– six home runs in 109 at bats is not totally, ridiculously shabby. That would prorate out to about 36 for the year– not shabby. However, the 30 strikeouts don’t look good. And the .165. That means you give up a ridiculous number of outs for those 36 home runs.

No matter– that’s not the point. The point is that Jorge Posada took a careful look in the mirror, and at those shabby stats, and decided, yup, still good enough to play for the Yankees. Those promising young kids in AAA ball? Suck it up. I deserve respect! I am owed respect! Don’t disrespect me. You don’t just play your best player. You owe it to the fans to lose a few games here and there just so you can trot out those old familiar names: Jeter, Rodriguez, Posada….

So when Girardi put Posada 9th in the batting order, in order to minimize the damage he does to the team’s chances of winning every night, Mr. Posada had a royal snit and took himself out of the line up.

If you are not familiar with baseball, especially with Yankee baseball, no one takes himself out of the line up one hour before game time.

As a Blue Jays fan, however, I must respond differently. There is a possibility that the Yankees might actually cast off those venerable veterans like Jeter and Posada, the way they cast poor Johnny Damon aside. I urge the Yankees to keep Posada and Jeter in the line-up every day! They are entitled to months and months and years and years to prove that their current slumps are an aberration! Give them another chance! And another. And another! They’ll show you.

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Jeter’s Batting Stroke

The idea that Derek Jeter can somehow shorten his stroke or change his batting stance in order to restore some of his lost effectiveness is ridiculous.

Baseball players, like most athletes, achieve success by optimizing every aspect of their game until they are competitive with the best athletes in the world in their sport. This happens in their late teens and early 20’s. By the age of 30, most athletes are in decline.

There is nothing for Jeter to find in his batting stroke or his stance, or his head, or his diet, or his preparation, or his discipline, or anything. Jeter lost his real effectiveness years ago. Like Cal Ripken, he was allowed to trade his moderately decent offensive skills for a few more cycles in the field and the illusion of defense. The illusion of defense is easy. Nobody knows if you should have had that runner at first but didn’t because you were too slow, or your arm was too weak. Nobody knows if you should have reached that ground ball to the left that got through. Nobody knows if you should have been able to turn that double play. All the average fan knows if whether or not you fumbled the ball, or if you got a hit. Even mediocre shortstops can catch most of the balls they can reach.

Because I am a Blue Jays fan, I hope the Yankees do everything they can to gratify the peanut galleries and keep Jeter out there, day after day after day, at shortstop. I promise you: he will come out of his slump if you give enough at bats.

Blue Jays fans understand the difference a less famous but more talented defensive player can be: Devon White replacing Lloyd Moseby. It was a revelation. I didn’t know balls hit into the alleys could be caught.

That said– please don’t come back at me with “well, Jeter’s having a pretty good season, isn’t he? The adjustment worked.” Jeter had a sub-par season last year. Most players who have a sub-par season– like most teams that have a sub-par season– will bounce back to some extent. That won’t change the essential equation: Jeter’s defensive effectiveness is long gone, and .280 with 18 homes runs won’t obviate the Yankees’ need for a new shortstop.

I would also bet that long-time, faithful Yankee fans will be a little startled when the new kid gets to play. Habituated to Jeter, they will be a bit surprised to see ground balls that they thought were going through snatched up and turned into outs.

Update September 2011: as you may have noticed Jeter has brought his batting average up to a respectable .290 or so. However, he still only has 4 home runs, and not much else to show for it. So, essentially, my assessment here holds.

Other exhausted talents: I’m glad to see Tampa Bay struggling after signing Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon. Had the Blue Jays signed either of them, I would have been seriously depressed.

The Blue Jays 2011 version have a respectable club. Everything depends on which way the talent breaks: they have a lot of young players, especially starting pitchers, who could be fabulous, or merely good. Romero, Murrow, Cecil, and Drabek — nobody knows if these are tomorrow’s stars or tomorrow’s 4th and 5th starters on average teams.

They play in what continues to be the toughest division in baseball, a disproportionate share of their games against three of the best teams in the American League. According to baseball writers, Boston will win the World Series, the New York Yankees will struggle with Tampa Bay for the wild card, and even the Orioles are ready to move up. So the Blue Jays, in 2011, are up against four of the best teams in baseball.

I’m appreciative of the fact. The Jays are entertaining to watch lately. But they are up against a few very good, very well-financed teams, so I doubt they will finish any higher– or lower– than 3rd, again. And again. And again.

Their only real hope is that Boston and the Yankees have serious pitching problems– and they might.

The American League Eastern Division is probably, this year, the division of death.

3000 Hits

3000 hits, by the way, is really remarkable but not for the reasons most people think it is: what is remarkable is that these players– decent hitters, all– were so successful in avoiding serious injuries. You have to be good to get 3000 hits but you also have to be pretty lucky. Chances are pretty good that there are more than a few hitters with 2000 career hits or less who were actually better players than Derek Jeter… when they weren’t injured.

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Jittery Jeter

As a fervent Blue Jays fan I would definitely say to the Yankees, Jeter at a different position? Are you mad? Derek Jeter is THE shortstop of the century and has to stay there, just like he says, right through 2014. Everybody knows that range and quickness are over-rated: what really matters is that he almost never fails to catch any ball he can reach. And of course, the kiddies will be screaming and screaming for him at every home game no matter what he does.

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Your Reward for Buying a Ticket

It’s a lot of money– $72. For a ticket to a Blue Jays game.

Nobody goes to Blue Jays games. When the Blue Jays were very successful and packing them in–18 years ago, now– tickets were about $30 for the same seats. The stadium was full– 50,000 people coming out every night to root for the Jays. If I remember correctly, the Jays were the first team to break the 2 million mark in annual attendance.

Now that nobody wants to come, the tickets are $72 each.

Why don’t they lower the price? One guess. Obviously, because there is no competition. Who is is going to fill up a baseball stadium by charging less than the Blue Jays? Nobody. That’s how baseball operates. In exchange for this special dispensation from the usual rules of competition and free enterprise, you get…. what? Yes, there is a reason why there is only one top-tier professional baseball league– because the government officially allows them to stifle competition. In exchange for that, you get to buy the team a stadium, pay $72 for a lousy seat, and buy cold chicken and fries for $14.95.

If the stadium is empty, why not lower the prices? I believe they are afraid that it will alter the public’s perception of what they should pay for a major league ticket. And once lowered, it will be difficult to fool us again.

So when nobody else wants to come to a Blue Jays game but you do, and you are generously willing to pay the outrageous sum of $72 for a lousy seat (there are no good seats anywhere in the Skydome, or in most stadiums), what exactly do you get for your hard-earned dollars?

You don’t get to see a replay of close plays. Nope. You should have stayed at home if you want to see if a runner really beat the throw to second base.
You get assailed with noise and flashing lights emanating from every square inch of the stadium. Constantly. All the time. After a while, you realize that the owners of these professional teams are desperately aware of the fact that their product is actually quite dull and uninteresting to most people most of the time so all the special effects are required to prove to you that you are having an exciting experience.

You get to buy crummy food for high prices, warm beer, ugly, cheap souvenirs, a “program” that consists mostly of lavish praise for mediocre players, and over-priced shirts and hats with the precious logo on them.

Within five minutes of the start of the game, half the stadium decides to get up and buy something to eat or go to the bathroom, forcing you to stand up to let them pass, five, six, seven times.

The seats are too small to ever feel comfortable.

The netting in front of home plate, to protect the fans from the rare event of a fluke foul tip hitting someone in the head, is annoying and ugly. I bet it’s possible to have a reasonably safe normal backstop without that massive, ugly net.

Most people seem to spend most of the game waiting to see if they get shown on the jumbotron video screen. When they do get on the screen, they jump up and down with excitement, spilling their beer. Then they go home happy, having paid $72 to see themselves on a giant TV screen.

I can’t prove it but at times it seemed like they were playing crowd noise through the speakers, as a way of hyping the alleged excitement of what was going on on the field.  I have no doubt that it is something they would do if they wanted to, while holding nothing but contempt for spoil-sports like me who want to hear the honest sound of a stadium crowd.

Every player on the Blue Jays is presented as some kind of god-like super-athlete of unspeakable accomplishments.

It’s hard to believe that on May 9, this conglomeration of staggering talents is in third place, 5 games back of Tampa Bay.

The Blue Jays in 2010 are a very odd team so far. This was a rebuilding year– they traded away their best pitcher, Roy Halliday– yet, so far, they are hanging in there in the American League East, in third place. They are five games back of Tampa Bay and the Yankees, but in any other division, they would be first, or close to first.

They lead the league in home runs, and they have had four starting pitchers throw no-hitters into the seventh inning. Four different pitchers. They also have five players hitting below .200, including the hugely expensive Lyle Overbay, and last year’s breakout star Aaron Hill.

Unfortunately, Alex Gonzalez, who leads the team in home runs with 10, doesn’t seem likely to continue the pace. Vernon Wells is a nice guy but, like Overbay, ridiculously overpaid given his achievements. I don’t expect much from the Blue Jays in 2010.

The hope for this team for the future is the five or six starting pitchers (Marcum, Romero, Cecil, Morrow, Eveland– and young Drabek in the minors), who look very promising, along with Adam Lind and 20-year-old Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechavarria.

Those starting pitchers, seriously, look like the core of a very strong starting rotation in another two or three years.

Travis Snider has yet to show he can handle major league pitching. Bautista and Fred Lewis are place-holders. I like John Buck so far.

But the Blue Jays will never again be able to match the Yankees and Boston in spending (as they did in 1992-93), so, this season, and all the rest, the Blue Jays will likely finish 3rd.

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Biopics and Other Lies

Why You Should Never Trust a Hollywood Biopic

Most movie biographies– almost all of them, nowadays, in fact– are the result of incestuous relationships between the guardians and owners of copyrighted material and the film-makers. The guardians want a fawning tribute to their deceased or not so deceased beloved. The film-maker wants a hit movie. If it’s about Ray Charles, it’s got to have his music in it. Well, who controls the rights to that music? Right– Ray Charles’ family and heirs.

I am not talking about minor changes in order to fit the biographical narrative into a digestible 90 minute experience.  I accept time compression and combinations of different characters.  It’s the vanity stuff I object to, and the sliming of people in order to create a villain where none existed, to provide dramatic tension.

And I’m not talking about movies that were never intended to be biographical, “Amadeus”.  “Amadeus” is not about Mozart’s life; it is about the random kindnesses and cruelties of fate that awards talents to the unworthy and worthy without justice.

And I forgot the third leg of this unholy tripod: the audiences, which are more than happy to be deceived about their heroes.  Johnny Cash did drugs because of a childhood trauma.  David Helfgott was a great pianist.  John Nash’s wife stuck with him through thick and thin.  Oskar Schindler lifted a steam locomotive.  Elton John’s father abandoned him and never supported his musical career.  A record producer rejected Freddie Mercury’s (awful) “Bohemian Rhapsody”.

The Hollywood argument that you have to fictionalize because, well, you just have to, is utter bullshit, and there are a handful of Hollywood biopics that prove the point, including “I, Tonya” and “The Pianist”.

All parties to the charade make all the correct noises about “authenticity” and “warts and all” without the slightest intention of letting anyone else decide which warts deserve exposure and which might better be left in the dark. The audience, indulged in with a few carefully chosen scenes of debauchery or alcohol abuse, are convinced that the movie is telling it all. The actor hopes to get a chance, like Reese Witherspoon, to realize their life-long dream of becoming a country music singer!

Bring it on, Reese! I just hope that Dolly Parton, sitting in the audience, didn’t feel that her career achievements were in any way diminished by the fact that Reese Witherspoon only required a few months to render a creditable counterfeit.

Biopics

I Walk the Line
(2005, d. James Mangold, Joaquin Phoenix, Reese Witherspoon) More honest than most, but formulaic as hell.   Carefully calibrated so that you don’t judge Cash too harshly for his drug use.  And I really do hope that people don’t get the impression that this is what Johnny Cash and June Carter really sound like.

Coal Miner’s Daughter
(1980, D. Michael Apted, Sissy Spacek) Loretta Lynn has consistently claimed she was married at 13. In fact, county records show she was fifteen when she married Dolittle Flynn.

Buddy Holly Story
(1978, D. Steve Rash, Gary Busey) Cheese please: This film shows Holly writing a score in the studio– Holly could neither write nor read music. And where did the fourth Cricket go?

Ray
(2004, D. Taylor Hackford, Jaime Foxx) The state of Georgia never banned Ray Charles.

Backbeat
(1994, D. Iain Softley, Stephen Dorff, Ian Hart, Gary Bakewell, Chris O’Neill, Scot Williams) No Lennon-McCartney originals were used, or harmed, in the making of this otherwise intriguing production. One of the better biopics of this bunch.

Pollock
(2000, D. Ed Harris, Ed Harris) Ed Harris, Ed Harris, Ed Harris, Ed Harris….

Beautiful Mind
(2001, D. Ron Howard, Russell Crowe.) Omits any mention of his subversive period, his alleged homosexuality. And Nash didn’t see things– he heard voices. And his wife did leave him.

Great Balls of Fire
(1985, D. Jim McBride, Dennis Quaid) Conveniently ended in 1959, before the suspicious deaths of two of Lewis’ wives.

Schindler’s List
(1993, d. Steven Spielberg, Liam Neeson) That ridiculous last scene— Schindler weeping and wailing that he could have saved more if he had only sold his rings– never happened, and insults his memory. Spielberg just couldn’t help himself– just in case you didn’t get it, he has to clobber you over the head with just how slobbering beautiful Schindler’s actions seem to day. They were beautiful– but shameless ham-fisted scenes like this only raise doubts about the integrity of the rest of the movie. Schindler’s wife, shown fondly appreciating him in the film, actually left him. The book, incidentally, was originally marketed as fiction– the author took some true events and “fictionalized” them for whatever reason (possibly because he was unable to verify his information to acceptable journalistic standards). It was only when Spielberg decided to make a movie that it was rebranded as “non-fiction”. What changed? Spielberg’s desire to give the movie more gravitas.

Finding Neverland
(2004, D. Marc Foster, Johnny Depp) This one might take the cake– J. M. Barrie’s relationship to the Llewelyn children was problematic– all of them, later in life, had very ambivalent feelings about Barrie– to say the least. The boy for which Peter is named threw himself under a train at the age of 65, detesting his association with the play. Two of the other children died under suspicious circumstances (possible suicides). But this version makes him look like a lovable saint. Who owns the rights to “Peter Pan”? The Great Ormond Street Hospital. Would they like you to think ill of their cash cow? Sylvia Llewelyn Davies, incidentally, was not a widow when J. M. Barrie began visiting and monopolizing her children. Barrie himself was married earlier but never consummated the marriage.

Capote
(2005) Since Capote is long dead and he didn’t sing, more honest than most.

The Rose
( 1979) Disguised biography of Janis Joplin. It is an utterly depressing world we live in if it is to be believed that Bette Midler can supply anything remotely resembling even a facsimile of Janis Joplin’s singing performances. You owe it to yourself, if you have to seen this movie, to purge your soul with a viewing of an honest-to-god performance by the real Janis Joplin.

The Doors
( 1991) Oliver Stone’s bizarre and often tiresome portrait of Jimmy Morrison has at least one virtue: it isn’t unduly flattering. And it has a relatively impressive performance by a very committed Val Kilmer. There is a moment: the live performance of “Light my Fire” at least gives you something so lacking in most of these biopics– a moment in which you might actually apprehend what it was that made the artist great in the first place.

Shine ()
Where do I begin?

Marie Antoinette
My goodness– and we all thought the Queen was plotting, right up to the end, to bring in Austrian armies to put down the revolution!  Well, she was.

Farewell My Queen
The exception: an exquisite antidote, though slow-moving, paean to the roles of Antoinette’s servants and sycophants in the last days of the Louis XVI regime.

42 (Forty-two)

The myth is this:  the Brooklyn Dodgers with the rookie, Jackie Robinson, the first black player in Major League Baseball, were playing in Cincinnati on May 13,  1947, one of the most southern cities in the league.   Robinson was being subjected to horrible, incessant abuse, name calling, death threats, mockery, when another Brooklyn player, an esteemed local named Pee-Wee Reese, walked up to him and put his arm around him to send a message to the fans: we are brothers.  Don’t abuse my friend.  There is even a bronze statue memorializing the event in New York at the Brooklyn Cyclones home field.

It didn’t happen.  It was first reported by a pitcher who said he saw it while he was warming up in the bullpen to pitch in the first inning.  The records show that someone else was pitching the first inning.  No newspaper of the time reported the incident.  Pee-Wee Reese was a lifelong friend of Robinson’s and certainly behaved honorably towards him but Eddie Stanky is the one who threatened to fight Philadelphia players who were harassing Robinson.

An incident like it may have happened in 1948, in Boston.  Maybe.  But if it did, it wasn’t reported until 1952, well after the “experiment” (breaking the color barrier) had been widely regarded as a success.

 

Diversions
Jesus Biopic:

When Hollywood made King of Kings in 1960, it decided it couldn’t be too careful with the first talking film about the Son of God. Test screenings were held for carefully selected representative preview audiences to garner their reactions to the film. Would audiences find the idea of a celluloid Christ shocking? Would they be offended at the idea of Hollywood packaging and glamorizing the story of salvation? Would they be appalled at the vivid scenes of Christ on the cross, one of the most sacred images of the Christian religion?

Friday, January 24, 2020

 

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Batting Average

No manager or coach can tell you something that you can do that will work at any particular at bat. Runners on, a tie game, 9th inning– the pitcher might simply, on that particular occasion, out-smart the hitter. He may have excellent control. He might be able to place that hard fastball low and inside and over the plate: ground ball double-play, game over.

The Blue Jays, for about two weeks now, have looked a lot like the Blue Jays of 2008: excellent pitching, terrible offense. Halliday just pitched seven shut-out innings and the Blue Jays lost, 1-0, to a relatively weak team, Atlanta. Vernon Wells– one of the stars, reputably, of the Blue Jays offense, has gone 5 for 28 in the last week. In those seven games he has walked twice and doesn’t have a single RBI. You can’t fault him for a single at bat– shit happens. But Wells has a lot of stretches where he is worse than ineffective: he is a net drag on the offense. He doesn’t walk: he hits into a double play. He comes up to bat with Hill or Scutaro on base in a close game and produces nothing but outs. He comes to bat early in the game with nothing on the line and hits a single. He is having a terrible month.

Adam Lind is 5 for 27. Scutaro 5 for 26. Rolen 4 for 21.

One thing you learn from baseball is that anecdotal evidence is meaningless. For most of his career with the Blue Jays, Wells averages about .300 with 25 homeruns. At the end of 2009, I suspect he will once again end up with about 25 homeruns and an average around .290 – .310. That means in July or August or September, he will pick up the pace and have a hot week or two, and Blue Jays fans will line-up for Vernon Wells bobble-head day.

Conversely, someone gets a lot of hits– like David Ortiz used to– and the fans begin to think he has some special gift for hitting in the “clutch”. In fact, he just hits well. He gets lots of hits. You seem to remember him always getting a hit when it matters because you are more likely to remember when it matters, but if you check, you will find that good hitters simply get lots of hits. At the end of the year, you will find that they are all pretty close to their career averages.

The manager can’t give any hitter a secret that will guarantee a hit at any particular at bat, and I doubt that either the manager or the hitting coach can have a deep effect on a player’s ultimate ability to hit a ball. The ability to get a hit, in my opinion, is almost entirely a function of the physical skills of the player, and those skills don’t change quickly over a player’s career. They peak at about age 28 and start declining slowly thereafter. (That’s why a player who dramatically improves his performance after the age of 30 should be suspected of cheating.)

The Blue Jays have lost five games in a row because too many of their hitters are slumping at the same time. The Blue Jays are neither as good as their first month or as bad as the last week. I suspect that, once again, they will begin to average out as a fairly good team, with good pitching and defense and a middling offense.

The offensive production of a team is entirely a function of the number of players who are hitting well. The Blue Jays started this season with a dramatic improvement in their offense over last year. The only changes to the line-up were the return of Aaron Hill– who might be the real deal– and the addition of Marco Scutaro as the regular short-stop. Rod Barajas and Scott Rolen hit well over their career averages, for a while. Inevitably, they will revert back to something like what they did last year and the year before. Lyle Overbay, as always, looks like someone who should be hitting a lot more than he does. Over this dismal past week, he hit .350. Fabulous, except that he only walked twice, didn’t hit a single home run, and drove in only 3. If Wells and Rios and Rolen are not driving in runs, Overbay is not picking up the slack.

In short, do the Blue Jays really have an improved offense in 2009? Or did a number of players simply have a good month at the same time? Are they really the 2008 Jays in disguise?

The Blue Jays offense should be better this year with Hill back in the line-up, and, marginally, with Barajas instead of Gregg Zaun behind the plate. Lind will perform better. Rios is a mystery: he could hit 30 homeruns and bat .300 or he could hit 15 homeruns and bat .230. Travis Snider clearly was not ready for major league pitching, but he will be. He probably won’t be a big factor this season.

What I worry about is that you can’t win the East Division or the Wild Card with a team largely comprised of players like Wells, Overbay, Rolen, and Rios, all taking turns slumping, and not being particularly dominating when they aren’t, and certainly not with players like Bautista and Millar using up valuable at bats.

Who would you think would be the highest paid Blue Jay? The one who performs the best? How good is management at predicting, when they offer a player a contract, how well he will perform?

It might surprise you to know that Scott Rolen earns twice as much as Vernon Wells and about five times as much as Aaron Hill. Or that B.J. Ryan earns almost as much as Roy Halliday. Or that Aaron Hill, earns half of what Vernon Wells gets paid. Or that Lyle Overbay earns way more than Vernon Wells.

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The 2009 Blue Jays

As of today, the Toronto Blue Jays are 9 games above 500. That’s a remarkable start.

Baseball is unlike hockey and basketball in this respect: April matters. The Blue Jays could play .500 baseball the rest of the season and still have a good shot at the Wild Card. In fact, last year the Jays did pretty well play .500 most of the season— but they didn’t have a 19-10 start to play with.

Most baseball writers that I have scanned think the Blue Jays are not for real. They point to their relatively easy schedule, and the fact that some players, like Kevin Millar and Marco Scutaro, are performing above their career norms.

Partly true. It is also true that one of the reasons that Baltimore and Detroit and Cleveland and Minnesota are seen as “weaker” opponents is that they were beaten by the Blue Jays, and the Blue Jays do not have a lot of big names in their line-up. Ever heard of Adam Lind? Aaron Hill? Lyle Overbay? Travis Snider? Rob Barajas?

On the other hand… Blue Jays’ pitching has been average, at best. Last year, it was the best pitching staff in the majors. Unfortunately, they lost A. J. Burnett to free agency, and two very promising talents, Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan, are injured. On the plus side, rookie Ricky Romero has been impressive– now he’s out with a muscle pull. Jesse Litsch, also on the DL, and Scott Richmond have been solid. Rookie Brett Cecil gave up one earned run in six innings as a fill-in fifth starter. Their relievers have been excellent, but that’s nothing new: no relief corps has been better than the Blue Jays’ over the past three years. The weak spot: B. J. Ryan, who has nothing so far this year. One hopes and prays the Blue Jays don’t waste a month trying to figure out if he is going to get it back– not with Scott Downs pitching the way he has.

I think the Blue Jays have a shot, mainly because their pitching is likely to improve with the return of Romero and Litsch, and possibly Marcum. Tallet will then be available to the bullpen again, which improves that area. Or maybe not. In his past two starts, 13 innings, Tallet has allowed one run.

Yes, Scutaro is not likely to maintain his current pace, and Rolen and Overbay will probably settle into an average average average, and Well’s hasn’t convinced me that he is a real star who can carry the team for a few days once in a while.

But Alex Rios might yet find his stroke.

Barajas has also been knocking the ball silly the past month and that is not likely to continue, but they will get some production out of him.

Aaron Hill is a solid 20 HR .290 hitter. Maybe he has a good year and bits 28 HR, .315.

You know, I don’t see it. I don’t understand why the Blue Jays suddenly lead both leagues in most offensive categories. Where’s it coming from? Not from Wells or Rios or Overbay. But whenever I hear someone say their balloon is about to pop, I look at the team and think– maybe not. In the last few years, it has not been unusual for a team to come out of nowhere and make a run at the World Series. The White Sox. The Rays. Philadelphia. Florida. Anaheim.

As a fan, I have high hopes for a team that is currently performing well. I suspect that they will come down to earth to some extent once they face better teams this month.

Last year, the Blue Jays were .500 against the Yankees and Red Sox. If they do that again this year, and if the Rays and Orioles continue to struggle, there is a real chance the Jays will take at least the Wild Card.

So I’m predicting 94 wins and the wild card. And if they get that, anything’s possible because Halladay remains one of the two or three best money pitchers in the American League right now, and an excellent bullpen, solid defense, and a couple of good hitters can take you a long way in the playoffs.

One more possibility: Adam Lind may be the next great power hitter in the American League. Everyone starts somewhere.

As I write… the Blue Jays are leading the Angels 7-0 after two innings. The devastating offense continues. ..

Almost all of the columnists who feel that the Blue Jays are not for real insist they have had a very easy schedule so far– they haven’t had to face any teams from their own division. Except Baltimore. (Which was picked by some pundits to contend this year.)

Among the other teams they faced: Detroit, Minnesota, Cleveland, Oakland, Texas, and the White Sox. All of these teams except Cleveland and Oakland are at or near .500. Kansas is in first place and is the only team to win a series from the Blue Jays this year. Soft schedule? Maybe. But last year, the Blue Jays finished with an 86-76 record largely because they lost to inferior teams while doing relatively well against the better teams, like Boston and New York (.500 combined).

Managing Middles

Sometimes late in a close game you will see a manager position his infielders so that they are “guarding the line”. Why? Allegedly, to prevent doubles. Well, that’s a good idea, isn’t it? So why not do it all the time?

Think about it. Why not do it all the time, if it’s a good idea?

Because it’s not a good idea. Because everybody knows that you will give up more singles and get less outs and ultimately give up more runs if you do that.

So, are managers saying that they are willing to give up an out in the late innings of a close game in order to reduce the number of doubles that are hit against them? That’s crazy. Yes, it is crazy.

I suspect that this move is just another case of the manager having to manage because… what else is he going to do? Go out onto the field and catch a fly ball? Hit a homer? Double-off a potential stealer?

No– he can’t do that. So the manager, feeling an overwhelming compulsion to do something, anything, will make a stupid move like a sacrifice bunt, intentional walk, or ‘have his infielders “guard the line”.

Remember what Keith Richard said when he was asked once why he didn’t sing more. “Then what would Mick do?”

Best Blue Jays

Hitter: Aaron Hill, Adam Lind
Outfield Arm: Rios
Infield Arm: Rolen
Infield Glove: John MacDonald
Starter: Halladay
Reliever: Downs
Oddest Combination of Skills: Lyle Overbay
Best Looking: Scott Rolen
Ugliest: Lyle Overbay
Is never going to be as good as the organization thinks he will be: Alex Rios.
Why is this man so successful? Jessie Litsch
Player the fans would most like to see traded to the Yankees: Ryan.
Player on another team the organization would most like to have: Zack Greinke
Manager’s Biggest Asset: Striking ability to stay out of the way of his players.
Manager’s Biggest Weakness: Loyalty to established, expensive, under-achieving veterans and irrational belief that facts have no relevance to decisions on the field.

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The New Yankee Stadium

Here is a picture of the New Yankee Stadium, from behind home plate.

I know the Yankees used to think of themselves as being the “class” of professional sports franchises. They refused to allow advertising along the board behind home plate because that would be tacky, like hockey.

Well, here we are:

Now you might think this is the triumph of commercial considerations over artistic considerations. I say it isn’t. I say it’s the triumph of stupidity over wisdom– the commercial advantages will be short-lived because the damage to the Yankee brand will be long-term. Think of the impression children — future baseball fans– will have of this stadium. Think of the impression they would have had if there had been no advertising visible in the above shot. Think of how that plays on the imagination year after year after year– until a franchise has a clearly defined luster.

Not any more. What is the new Yankee Stadium? A bunch of billboards with people in front of them and grass in front of the people. That’s all. You’re uglier than Susan Boyle.  You’re tackier than roller derby.  You’re cheaper looking than professional wrestling.

Thank you and good bye.