Tag: pandemic

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Pandemic!

You would think we all would have learned about hysterical over-reactions from the hysteria surrounding SARS in in 2003, and the even more over the top hysteria over Avian flu in 2006.

But then, many people don’t think it was an over-reaction. Many people believe we were almost swept by a deadly virus that could have killed … well…. I have no idea. I have no idea how many people many people think it might have killed. Nobody will say. Nobody will say because if they did say, they would quoted frequently when we find out that the real numbers are not quite anything like the predicted numbers, or the monumental solemnity with which Peter Mansbridge intones the phrase “pandemic”.

All we know is that SARS actually killed about 774 people world wide. Avian flu? When is the last time you saw a headline on that? Right– way before Michael Jackson died.

Now you may think that 774 is a big number. And it is– by all means. That’s a lot of death. It may sound rather clinical to observe, however, that compared to a number of other causes, it’s not really a very high number. Car accidents? Cancer? Homicide? Starvation? Every year about 4,000-5000 people die from seasonal flu alone in Canada, and about 40,000 to 50,000 in the U.S. When is the last time you saw twenty headlines in a row about those deaths? Why? Don’t they matter?

The problem is that every few years– on schedule, it seems– the media whip us all into a frenzy over some new virus that supposedly is going to decimate the population and destroy our civilization. Do you recall Legionnaire’s Disease? SARS, of course. Avian flu. With the notable exception of the AIDS virus, none of these actually had much of impact beyond the usual seasonal swell of flu deaths. SARS is reported to have been “contained”. What on earth does that mean? Sports and other events were cancelled; anyone with a temperature was quarantined; nurses wore masks; thermal scanners were installed at airports. Did any of this actually have any effect on the spread of SARS? I don’t believe it.

I’m not sure yet about getting vaccinated myself.

Fear drives bad politics. When people are willing to wait in line for eight hours to get a flu shot, you know that they will not countenance a government that says “the media are exaggerating the problem– there’s really not much the government can or should do to prevent the spread of H1N1”. The government knows that it better look like it’s doing something. The media know that the government knows that it better look like it’s doing something. Both of them want to feel important, so we have the sober Peter Mansbridge solemnly intoning that “Canadians are concerned”– as if he had some hotline to the brains of 30 million people– that not enough vaccine is available for every Canadian.

Do Vaccinations matter? A fascinating article from the Atlantic Monthly.

And an even more fascinating article in Wired which draws the opposite conclusion.

Which is more persuasive? Right now, I lean towards the Wired article because one of it’s main points is that the public has a foolish tendency to ignore the science and go with their feelings. It was the government– not the scientists– that announced that vaccines would no longer use thimerosal even though it was safe, so that the vaccines would be safer. They might have also announced that they were making witchcraft illegal, not because there are witches, but because we will all be less likely to suffer from magic spells.

Bill on SARS.

Now this one tops them all: the CBC is doing an online poll to ask viewers what story Wendy Mesley should cover tonight. One of her possible topics is this: can the public be trusted in a pandemic? I am not kidding. (Unfortunately, it is winning.)

What the hell is that supposed to mean? That the government should not compel people to get vaccinated?

 

The contemptible CBC: my wife and I have watched the CBC national news for about 15 years now. I used to think they were reasonably sober and serious and comprehensive, aside from occasional hysterics about SARS or Princess Diana… I don’t know– maybe they never were. We want some Canadian news, so I was reluctant to switch exclusively to McNeil-Lehrer but maybe it’s time. I was disgusted with their coverage of the SARS crisis back in 2003 and I am even more disgusted with their coverage of H1N1 now. The CBC has gone absolutely hysterically over the top this time.

From Wikipedia: As of 22 April, all Canadian SARS cases were believed to be directly or indirectly traceable to the originally identified carriers. SARS was not loose in the community at large in Canada, although a few infected persons had broken quarantine and moved among the general population. No new cases had originated outside hospitals for 20 days

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Panderemic

This is in the New York Times, March 28, 2006:

The vaccines produced every year to prevent seasonal flu are unlikely to be of any use in warding off a pandemic strain. But a flu shot could provide at least some peace of mind, by preventing the false alarm that could come from catching a case of garden-variety flu.

Being older than 11 years old, I tend to look somewhat askance at warnings of pandemics. That’s because I’m old enough to remember that there were warnings about swine flu and Legionnaire’s Disease, and SARS, and people talked seriously then about “pandemics” and “millions dead” and whether or not you should buy yourself a tight-fitting face-mask. More from the New York Times:

Some health officials have recommended stockpiling two to three months’ worth of food, fuel and water in case a pandemic interferes with food distribution or staffing levels at public utilities, or people are advised to stay home.

Ahem. Did you read this? Are you scared now? Have you scheduled a trip to the grocery store to stockpile three months worth of food in your basement? No? Are you crazy? This is a serious newspaper which prides itself on credible reporting based on factual research and accurate information. This newspaper is accountable, damnit!

This newspaper is seriously quoting “health officials” as recommending that you stockpile food in your basement because this pandemic might be so serious that it will seriously impact the food supply chain.

The article said nothing about arming yourself against roving bands of desperate mutants.

Am I crazy? Even the usually-sober CBC has been hyping avian flu for the past several months, frequently bandying about the phrase “global pandemic”.

I often recall a phrase from a Michael Moore’s documentary, in which he alleges that the government and media seem determined to frighten people, for two reasons. Firstly, to scare you into obeying them because, they would have you believe, only they can save you. Secondly, — and this may sound counter-intuitive– but they also want to scare you into consuming. They need you to feel that your life is insecure or inadequate unless you have acquired all those valuable things that other people are trying to take away from you. Our “way of life”– a clever euphemism for “extravagant toys”. [added November 2009]

But then I think, ah, no– this is the famous New York Times, and the CBC, for heaven’s sake, not ABC news…

The New York Times goes on to describe how “some experts” are afraid that this particular flu virus might mutate in humans and spread very, very quickly, and might even reach Arctic communities that can only be accessed by dogsled, like the Spanish flu.

The Spanish flu of 1917-18 was real. That is the nightmare our “health officials” worry about. Millions of people really did die. The threat of nuclear war in the 1960’s was more real than even the alarmists thought. The generals really were– and sometimes still are– psychotic lunatics. They were really prepared to bomb the entire planet into oblivion rather than surrender to any kind of Soviet ultimatum.

Pardon me if I observe, however, that people really did die of flu back then, and not just of Spanish flu. They died young, of any of dozens of illnesses or infections or injuries, most of which we have managed to overcome lately with basic nutrition, hygiene, safety precautions, and decent health care. Are we really vulnerable to a large scale “pandemic” of anything? In fairness to the New York Times, that same article quotes some “health officials” as believing that the likelihood of a pandemic is very small.

Nutrition and medical care today are way, way better than they were in 1917. Counter-point: about half of the people infected with avian flu (who caught it directly from birds) die. Counter-counter-point: what sometimes happens during these scares is that every random flu-like illness suddenly becomes attributed to the high-profile threat.

There is a subtext. Nobody who seriously believes in the threat of avian flu believes the government should have less authority to force people to be vaccinated or shutdown air ports, or arrest people.

I do wish I could bet against the CBC on the issue. It wouldn’t have to be a decisive yes/no type of bet. I would just like the CBC to carefully and publicly state what it thinks the odds really are– and put money behind it. They benefit from hyping the threat of a pandemic by getting interested listeners, who can’t wait to hear about the latest potential disaster.

There should be five million dollars on deposit with a neutral third party. If we get an pandemic, the CBC gets to keep their money and the listeners.

But if there is no pandemic– as there never was a SARS outbreak, for all the ink spilled about that business– skeptics like me should get paid for putting up with the bullshit for so long.