Trevor Milton’s Pardon – The Easy Con

If you are going to commit fraud in the U.S. make sure you make a healthy donation to the “Trump 47 Committee”. Trevor Milton, who bilked investors out of millions by making phony claims about the performance of his Nikola electric trucks, made the “donation” and just got himself a full pardon.

His investors are sure to be grateful: he is now off the hook for paying restitution as well. That is particularly vile. But not as vile as Milton practically chortling with glee on a video he released, claiming he was “persecuted” by the same corrupt deep state that went after Trump because he was a supporter.

It looks pretty easy to con the supposed genius. Take your pick.

But then, there are so many scandals with this administration. How do you choose any particular one to pay attention to?

The Trump Marathon

There are lots of movies that evoke the character of Trump’s hold on the Republican party and the republic– “The Godfather”, “Kingfish”, “Handmaid’s Tale”, “Succession”, “Peewee’s Big Adventure”– but the one I like the most– though it is a dark, unnerving film– is this one, “They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?” (1969). Trump as ringmaster of a dance marathon (they really did have them during the depression), offering desperate, unhappy people, a long-shot chance at money and fame, only to reveal to a contestant that expenses will be deducted from the prize money leaving the “winner” with nothing.

The ending is something only an adolescent could admire.  Heavy-handed, is the word.  It wasn’t necessary to make the point and though it has some narrative credibility the film would have been stronger without it.

USAID

USAID has had it’s share of expensive failures (like any large corporation or agency does) but it has also had some truly extraordinary successes, like the HIV program, malaria prevention, and nutrition for starving children in war zones. It has literally saved millions– literally millions– of lives. It has often worked well with faith-based charities even if their values don’t perfectly align.

If Trump was really the genius he thinks he is, it would take little effort to appoint really competent administrators to fine-tune their programs and reduce waste. That would merely take skill and intelligence. Terminating the entire agency is easy– and of obscene criminality. It is beyond policy: it’s simply monumental mindless cruelty. All for less than 1% of the U. S. budget.

China, meanwhile, must be salivating at the opportunity to develop relationships with the countries USAID must now leave.

And Republicans in Congress are obviously terrified of offending the capo but the aversions and sidelong glances and evasive answers are telling.


Things Trump Did That I Liked

    • Got rid of the penny.
    • Reduced credit card interest rates to less than 10%.
    • Reduced inflation to below 2%.
    • Stopped the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
    • Reduced waste and corruption in military defense spending.
    • Reduced deaths from fentanyl overdoses.
    • Brought manufacturing back to America on a broad scale.
    • Put a stop to states competing with each other to offer tax breaks and incentives to corporations to locate there.

No, of course he didn’t do any of those things.  Not yet.  Probably not ever.  I just like to fantasize sometimes.

People should take note (most of the media does not) that most of the job losses in the manufacturing sector over the last decades has not been due to off-shoring but to automation.  An entire recent podcast by The Daily discussed the manufacturing issue at great length without once mentioning this fact.  In other words, all the tariffs in the world will not bring back most of the manufacturing jobs that have been lost.

The Crypto Lottery Ponzi Scheme

When Bitcoin first appeared, I welcomed it.  Why?  Because at the time it appeared, I had just been involved in organizing an event in Montreal (2000) that attracted attendees from all over the world. Each of them had to pay a small fee to attend, which they had to send to the organizing committee to be deposited in a bank and then used to pay for the facilities and the talent at the event.

I thought– this should be easy, in today’s world, with the internet and all that.

I was wrong.

Many of the attendees actually mailed cash, in envelopes, to pay for their tickets.  Really?  Why?!  Why couldn’t they just go to their banks and direct them to send the money electronically, from their accounts to the organizing committee’s?  What was so hard about that?

Well they could.  But the bank-pimps demanded a lot of money to do something that naive me thought could not possibly cost very much to do.  The cost of sending money directly from their banks in Europe to my bank, BMO, in Canada was ridiculously, absurdly prohibitive.

WTF!

So the idea of Bitcoin, a currency that could bypass the banks and be used to purchase items through the internet without incurring outlandish surcharges sounded like a very good one.  I envisioned a world in which people buy and sell and get paid with this digital currency with no deposit fees or monthly bank fees or transaction fees or other such bullshit.  You do some work for a company, it deposits bitcoin in your bitcoin account (managed from your computer or smartphone) and you go buy your groceries or some shoes or a car and transfer bitcoin to the vendor and nobody pays the pimp.

It never happened.

A brief diversion: I set up an account with Coinbase to purchase about $3,000 worth of bitcoin many years ago– I forget when exactly but it was before 2010.  Bitcoin at the time was worth about $30 each. Yes, $30 for ONE Bitcoin.  I figured I could afford to lose $3,000 if it all went bad and I wanted to understand Bitcoin and the blockchain.  For unknown reasons, I was never able to connect my Coinbase account to my bank account and complete the transaction.  I didn’t feel strongly about it at the time so I gave up.

If I had succeeded, and kept the bitcoin, I would have, today, probably about 100 Bitcoin now worth about $7 million.

More likely, I would have sold part of it much earlier, but I had planned to keep about half for the long term.

Anyway, that’s what happened.  I mean that in a broad sense: that’s what happened.  Bitcoin became something other than a replacement for currency.  Nobody today buys anything with Bitcoin (for all practical purposes).  What they do is buy Bitcoin to see if it goes up, if they can make some money.

You can make money buying Bitcoin if you buy it low and sell high.  That’s it.  It has no other practical value, and even as an investment, it doesn’t have any real value, except for hackers who plant trojans on your computer and lock up your data unless you pay them, and kidnappers, and other criminals.

If Bitcoin is merely an entity of speculation, it is gambling.  It is a Ponzi scheme that only works as long as there is a continuous supply of suckers to perpetuate the demand.  The sustained viability of Bitcoin as a financial entity fundamentally depends on deception.  A sufficient number of customers must believe that it will continue to increase in value.

Inevitably, a number of investors will decide that it has peaked and will want to cash out before it crashes.  And  it will crash.  It has already crashed several times.  It is likely to crash more often as more and more ill-informed investors jump onto the bandwagon.

In the late 1920’s, an investor (some claim it was Joseph P. Kennedy) was getting his shoes shined and the shoeshine boy started chatting with him about the stocks he had invested in and offering him tips.  The shoeshine boy!  That was when, according to the anecdote, Kennedy decided to get out, because he realized that the market was being driven by foolish investors who were essentially gambling– not investing.

It’s not clear if the story is true but the point is well-taken.

When I say “suckers” I don’t mean that in a specific sense.  Some of the people buying vast amounts of Bitcoin are indeed very, very smart.  They understand what is happening, the same way a croupier at a casino understands what is happening.  Some people will become exceedingly rich from cryptocurrencies (there are now lots of them, including, ridiculously– absurdly– $Trump!!)

The meme coin, known as $Trump, was launched by the president on Jan. 17 and quickly surged, reaching a peak of over $14.5 billion in overall market value by Jan. 19, the day before his inauguration. It has since slumped by two-thirds.  From Here.

If there was a more obvious sign that the Trump administration is going to be absolutely rife with corruption, I haven’t heard it.  The fact that Trump is endorsing and even selling crypto currencies is a tell.  This administration is out to facilitate looting on a scale we haven’t seen since Coolridge.

 

 

The Kennedy Center Honors

With Trump taking over the Kennedy Centre, we can look forward to Ted Nugent, Kid Rock, Mel Gibson, Kanye West, the Village People, and professional wrestlers receiving the honors.

That sounds like a joke, but we have learned that Trump is, in fact, a joke.  The joke is real.  He might well do the Village People.

Well, why not?  If they have previously “honored” Cher, Lucille Ball, Amy Grant, and others, why the fuck not The Village People?   (List of honorees.)

I don’t begrudge platforms out there that honor popular artists.  They have their place.  Actually, they are all over the place,  They are endless and infinite, a gigantic pool of triviality and self-infatuation that serves the masses when they want to believe that the trashy spectacle they prefer is somehow, literally “honorable”.   That the artists they love earned their way to popularity and were not the product of massive pr machinery that manipulated you into finding them interesting.

You have the Grammys, the Superbowl, the Emmys, the Hollywood Walk of Fame,  and all the banquets and dinners you could ever dream of.

And obviously, there are platforms that honor genuinely elite achievements in the arts, the Pulitzers, the Nobels, the Bookers, and numerous foundations and charities.

The Oscars straddle that uneasy compromise, trying very hard to be credible and popular at the same time.  They rewarded “Midnight Cowboy”.  They also rewarded “Avatar”, “Titanic 1997” (the awful James Cameron version),  “Rocky”, “Out of Africa”,  “Dances With Wolves”,  “Forrest Gump”,  “Braveheart”, and “Driving Miss Daisy”.  And “Gladiator”.  And “Chicago”.  Oh my– I didn’t think the list was that bad.  “The King’s Speech”.  And “Green Book”.

Okay– that’s not much of a compromise.  It’s all out craven publicity machine servitude.

In one of the most astounding acts of cultural reversal ever, the Kennedy Center even honored George Carlin in 2008 (with the Mark Twain Prize).  Yes, George Carlin of the seven words you can never say on television.   Even more shockingly, he accepted.  Shamefully, I think.  Shamelessly, I fear.

He died in June of that year.

In all seriousness, Carlin’s acceptance of the honor is one of the most depressing moments in the last 50 years.  For everyone, whether you know it or not.  The ultimate anti-establishment satirist, the caustic jester of the rich and privileged class, the man who mocked false values and hypocrisy for his entire career, feted and honored by a massive gathering of politicians, billionaires, celebrity journalists, and other privileged phonies.  And yes, of course, some legitimately honorable attendees: the bait.

Bill Cosby was honored (rescinded). The Who was honored — but they’re British.  I didn’t know they honored foreigners.

They honored both Cher and Philip Glass one year. I don’t think you could find two nominees whose audiences are less likely to overlap than those two.

The problem for Trump will be that not very many A-listers would probably be willing to make themselves available for the festivities given the current political climate. The problem solves itself because Trump’s constituency probably doesn’t believe Kid Rock and Roseanne Barr are not A-listers.

Should be interesting. Trump and Melania did not attend the annual festive night while President to not “distract” from the event with the political fall-out. (Some potential nominees would have refused the “honor”). So I presume, he plans to attend now, which means he needs a list of potential nominees who have no qualms about appearing with him (and attending the honorific dinners: Chairman’s Luncheon, State Department Dinner, White House Reception, and Honors gala performance).

Trump, while ceaselessly mocking the establishment, also craves the status and recognition that goes with hobnobbing with celebrated artists and performers. He loves to say, “look at this really smart guy and he’s hanging out with me.” I imagine he pictures himself posing for pictures with, say, previous honorees Bruce Springsteen, Paul McCartney, Yo-Yo Ma, Meryl Streep, Steven Spielberg, Joni Mitchell.

It’s just hard to imagine nominees who will go along with this with Trump in office and hosting, aside from The Village People, Ted Nugent, and Kid Rock. Kanye West, definitely. Wayne Newton and Loretta Lynn. Lee Greenwood.

Not exactly A-List in any respect.

They don’t want to be too embarrassed. I suspect he’ll find some marginally respected artists who will be tempted by the exposure and the opportunity to sample hors d’oeuvres with Megyn Kelly or do the frug with Elon Musk.

 

Tariffs

Sad and depressed? Disappointed in life? Hard to live with bad decisions? Annoyed by the success of others? Ask your doctor if you need Tariffs. Tariffs, from Trump Pharmaceutical, may be the answer. Tariffs will make you smile again. Tariffs will bring you joy and let you play with your children again. Tariffs will make that nagging feeling of unfulfilled expectations fade away into blissful contentment. Ask your doctor if Tariffs is right for you.

Side effects may include inflation, unemployment, trade wars, and recession.

The Coming Republican Disaster

No one should say, when it happens, that nobody thought it would.  Everybody thought it would, just as they thought, eight years ago, that a vulgar, loud-mouthed, pathological liar like Trump could never be elected.   But don’t be fooled by a misfire on only one part of the equation.  Yes, Trump got elected,  once, and then again, for a second term, by a population that seemed oblivious to the real forces that shape and distort our economic and social lives.

This is a segment of the population that believes in barstool wisdom: some loudmouth sitting next to you at a bar and mouthing off about how high his taxes are, how crime is getting out of control, how America has outsourced all of the best jobs, how preposterous it is for people to choose their gender, could be the next cabinet secretary in a Trump administration.

When you hear interviews with the MAGA crowd, the first thing that is evident is that they have no idea what economic health or the cause of inflation is.  They believe that crime is on the increase when it objectively is not.  They have no idea that 75% of the manufacturing jobs that were lost over the last 20 years were lost to automation, not out-sourcing. They zero in on inflation and magically believe that Joe Biden’s policies caused it, even though it happened in every developed country.  They hated the constrictions imposed on them by the Covid epidemic but nobody had a magical formula for preventing its spread, and hundreds of thousands of deaths, while allowing everyone to conduct business as usual.  Nobody was going to be happy with any solution– and they weren’t.  They blamed Biden for the deplorable mess at the exit from Afghanistan, but only the generals who believed the U.S. should stay there for at least another 20 years had any alternative.  Diatribes about the messy exist almost never acknowledge the fact that the U.S. and it’s allies were losing, badly, by that time, and that the whole project was a colossal failure, and that it was the Republican Party that got America into that mess in the first place.  The honest Republican knows in his heart that it was their party’s great fortune that a plan devised by Trump had to be executed under a Democratic Administration.  Trump, who was just as determined to leave, would have fared no better.

Lost in all the flotsam around the Biden Administration, is the fact that he pulled off a singularly remarkable achievement: he kept the economy chugging along while reducing inflation.  Most economists will tell you that reducing inflation will causes joblessness to rise significantly.  Biden’s infrastructure investment and other policies prevented that.  That is a signal accomplishment for which Biden gets no credit.

I doubt that anyone would have fared better than Harris had Biden had the sense to not run for re-election.  It will be to his everlasting discredit that he allowed his ego to blind him to his own frailties, but had someone been nominated earlier, and contested the primaries, would it have made a difference?  A large portion of the voting public were ornery, dissatisfied with their lives, and infatuated with simplistic solutions.  Trump would make prices go down, houses go up, and people who don’t like me go away.  Trump will bring peace to Gaza and the Ukraine.  Trump will teach China a lesson.

And so we arrive at the Trump Administration.  I think it is natural for most informed observes to instinctively believe, on some level, that he can’t be serious.  He’s not going to impose sweeping tariffs on foreign imports, deport 15 million illegal immigrants, or invade Greenland.  He can’t let China bully Taiwan.  He can’t really end Obamacare.  He certainly won’t balance the budget.

He can’t be serious, because what he says he is going to do is stupid.

What will probably happen?

Either he will go ahead and impose the tariffs or he will grant so many exceptions that some people will realize– as if they didn’t already know– that he is a liar, like every other politician.  If he imposes the tariffs, he will re-ignite inflation, and that will be embarrassing, but he can try to blame it on some kind of hidden Biden policies that he couldn’t vanquish overnight.  But it will raise suspicions.  But then, other nations will retaliate with tariffs on U. S. exports, causing jobs to be lost and corporations to lose money.

He can try to round up millions of illegal immigrants, but that will require something that looks like concentration camps, and hundreds of thousands of state employees, guards, administration, lawyers.  It will be very costly, and it will have a large impact on some industries that depend on immigrants, like construction, meat packing, and agriculture.  Again, there will be a significant inflationary impact.

He will try to extend his tax cuts, due to expire next year, and add a few more.  This will lead to an interesting battle with the hard core tea-party Republicans who sincerely want to balance the budget.  Dream on.  In the meantime, Speaker Johnson will have a monumental challenge to get any budgetary measures passed given that he has a razor-thin majority and lots of members of his own party who won’t hesitate to sabotage their own agenda.  To keep the tax cuts, Trump badly needs an extension– or suspension– of the debt ceiling.  The Tea Party Republicans will probably try to hold the process hostage to their own radical agenda– massive cuts to the budget.  That should be fun.

Trump has nominated a bunch of clowns for the top cabinet posts in his administration.  Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, Robert Kennedy Jr., are almost literally, yes, clowns.  You can be assured that most of government is actually carried out by deferential functionaries below the level of cabinet secretary, but these three, and the others, have big egos and extraordinary confidence in their own genius and may try to push through things that any sensible person would hesitate to push through.  Will Kennedy try to stop vaccine mandates, or undermine them?  Will he take on the processed food industry?  Will Hegseth stay sober on the job?  Will Gabbard try to restore Assad to power in Syria?

And will Trump cut off aide to Ukraine?  Ukraine does receive a lot of aide from other nations, including Germany, France, and Britain, but if it collapses, will the American public be as eager to wash their hands of it as Trump is?  And what if Putin, seeing the opportunity, starts to mass troops at the border of Moldova or Georgia?

Americans– aside from some Republican true believers– don’t care much about the deficit.  It will balloon under Trump because he will cut taxes even more than he did in his first term but won’t dare touch Social Security or Medicare, the two largest (by far) spending items in the budget.  But Republican strategy– the core of their very being as a political party– is to complain bitterly about the deficit only when they are not in office.

The last balanced budget in the U.S. was the last year of the Clinton Administration.

In Republican Fantasy, after a few months or a year of Trump, inflation will be down to below 2%, housing starts will rise, house prices will drop, mortgage rates will drop, Hamas will turn over the remaining hostages, Ukraine will surrender the seized territories to the Russians, NATO countries will increase their spending on defense, and thousands of factories will open to begin manufacturing televisions, washers, and driers in America.  With high-paying union jobs.  Wait– Trump is not going to be good for unions.

The sales of electric cars will decline while America will amazingly find even more oil to burn.  Don’t forget: crime will go down.

And if it happens, it will be due to the miraculous intervention of Donald Trump, or God, or both.  And if none of it happens, it will still be Joe Biden’s fault, whose administration policies were so bad that even Trump cannot undo them during his time of administration even though he told you that he could.

What he won’t be able to blame on Biden are the numerous scandals and blow-ups that seem likely to pervade this Administration.  Trump’s people are unusually shameless about wanting to get very rich while having a rather cavalier attitude towards ethics and propriety.  Trump’s family and cohorts are already lining up “investments” and real estate deals with the oil-producing Arab states.  In Trump’s view, MAGA people don’t mind. That’s why they elected him.  But there is a tiny smidgeon of shame left in the Republican Party and Trump is a lame-duck: he cannot run again.

I repeat: he is a lame-duck, who cannot run for president again.  If it is to the material advantage of one of his “friends” to turn on him, he will.  If it is to the political advantage of a Congressman or Senator to diverge from the Trump agenda, he or she will.

One last depressing probability: Supreme Court Justice Alito retires and, without McConnell to influence him, Trump gets to replace him with, I don’t know,  Donald Jr.  The most moronic president in recent history will have appointed four justices to the highest court in the land.

 

 

 

MAGA Facts

“Real investment in factories has more than doubled since President Biden took office; for the electronics industry, it has nearly quadrupled since the beginning of 2022. By comparison, Mr. Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers tried to show that his 2017 tax cut spurred investment but instead found an effect of zero…”  NY Times

Facts don’t seem to register with voters. I ask myself, what do Trump voters think he will do about inflation– what policy or legislation or executive action? They don’t know but they know that when he announces it, it will sound simple and it will annoy people who spend their lives studying economies. And is he really going to round up “25 million” illegal immigrants? Will even his supporters have the stomach for what that will look like?

But I do look forward to the magic that ends the wars in Gaza and the Ukraine and persuades Iran to abandon it’s nuclear program. Just not holding my breath.

Our Private Accommodations

You must embody a great reserve of self-abasement to be the wife of a VP nominee in the Republican Party. Easy for Mrs. Pence: she liked baking cookies. But for Usha Vance, a bit of a challenge. You get to give up your stellar career, revert to “Mrs” VP instead of Ms, act like you truly, really respect the megalomaniacal pussy-grabber at the top of the ticket, and be prepared to explain to your friends why the 1950’s was such an awesome time in American history and worth going back to and that you really, truly enjoy baking cookies and hosting teas– far more satisfying than your boring previous work litigating cases for Disney or the Regents of the University of California. And you also get to explain how your husband, who used to brag about being accepted at Yale and served on the Law Review now mocks his own alma mater and pretends to be just folk (with very, very rich friends in the Tech Industry to subsidize his career). And carefully avoid mentioning that his “military career” consisted mostly of pushing paper and taking pictures. Honorable but skimpy and no match for John McCain whom your boss derided as a loser. Watching “Mrs. Vance” on stage at the convention was dispiriting. As Roger Ebert said, commenting on the wonderful film “Junebug”, we all make our own private accommodations in life.

The Elusive Joy of Apocalypse

“The crowd, too, seemed electrified in a way I had not seen for years. The lifting up of the martyr, the processing of her death into rage, the processing, through Trump, of the rage into joy — the old alchemy was working again.” NY Times

I don’t think I personally give enough credit to the “joy” aspect of finding out that your worst fantasies about global conspiracies (the Democrats, the Ukrainians, the French, the Pope, the sex traffickers, the Fairies & Orcs, Mike Pence– whomever) are likely true, and that a savior– with his own custom leather-bound bible to offer– is bravely defying the courts and politicians and judges (even the ones he appointed) who are out there serving the interests of the international pedophile conspiracy by bringing him down. The swagger, the mocking, the insults (even of Jimmy Carter as he mourned the death of his wife), seem tasteful to you, hallmarks of virtue and moral courage and dignity. Surely he would have served in the military had he had the opportunity– okay, maybe he did dodge it– and surely some of those wounded veterans like John McCain deserved mockery, but he is sure to restore military spending to its normal level of ten times what everyone else in the world is spending combined, and he will stop crime, invent manufacturing, prove that all the world’s climate scientists are liars, put Stormy Daniels back in her place, pay the money he owes the National Enquirer, eliminate the deficit by cutting taxes (after increasing it massively his first term), stop abortion (unless the polling shows it’s a loser of an issue), cure cancer, and maybe actually go to church some days. Whatever he says, even if it’s the opposite of what he said yesterday or the day before that, or tomorrow, believe it, deliriously. You know in your heart that to do otherwise will bring not a rational, creaky, imperfect but functioning state; no, it will bring the apocalypse.