I would be as delighted as anyone to see North Korea dismantle all of it’s nuclear weapons, sign a peace treaty with South Korea, open it’s borders, and hold elections. None of that is going to happen.
It’s April 30, 2018. I am not alone: it took a few days for the intoxication to wear off but now numerous commentators are also very suspicious. (Gwynne Dyer was one of the few to have never not been suspicious.)
The problem is this: Kim Jung An was, we have been told, mightily impressed– in a negative sense– by the brutal death of Moammar Khadafy, who was dragged out of a steel culvert and beaten to death by enraged citizens at the end of Libya’s recent civil war. Khadafy also once had a nuclear bomb program but he was persuaded to give up this nukes and join the West in a battle against Islamic terrorism. In the end, his own people turned against him and the Americans stepped in to assist the rebellion, and guarantee the collapse of Khadafy’s government.
The Americans could never have done that if Khadafy had had a nuclear bomb to threaten them with.
There are some possible explanations for what is happening right now with North Korea.
- Kim Jung An has had a road to Damascus experience. He wants to be a statesman and lead his nation to prosperity and international respect so that he can reign as the glorious leader of an enlightened, civilized, modern state.
- Kim Jung An believes that Trump might actually do it– he might actually launch a pre-emptive attack and try to take out North Korea’s nuclear weapons testing facilities and, if they can, the launch sites, and the artillery aimed at South Korea. So, quavering in fear, he is prepared to surrender rather than face military annihilation.
- Kim Jung An is, like his father and grand-father, a canny genius who understands perfectly the dynamic character of Trump’s foreign policy– “dynamic” in the sense of ridiculously impulsive and short-sighted– and is playing Trump for a sucker, hoping to get some sanctions dropped and some economic benefits, in exchange for vague, indeterminate, and unverifiable “reductions” of his testing and development regime (but not of the existing missiles).
I think “3” is the most likely answer. In fact, I think it is very, very likely that Kim is taking Trump and Pompeo and Bolton for a ride, no matter how much they all insist they cannot be fooled. Kim Jung An is probably thrilled beyond imagination at the imminent summit: just the two of us– an unstable, impulsive, immature blow-hard and the leader of the most powerful nation on earth– on that day– Kim Jung An!
As of this day, Kim apparently has offered to allow international inspectors to witness the shutdown of his nuclear test facility– the one that recently collapsed and is no longer usable. Then he offered to get rid of all his nukes if the U.S. promised not to attack North Korea. The U.S. promise, of course, would be as worthless as Kim’s– especially under the Trump Administration which has shown the same deep, abiding, respect for international commitments and agreements as Trump has personally shown for wedding vows and sexual purity. Item #1: the Iran Nuclear agreement, which the U.S. is poised to break?
Of course, it is possible that the U.S. will adopt a rational, defensible, strategically smart position that the nukes must be dismantled before there is even a moment given to negotiations on sanctions and economic agreements. But then, the talks might have already been over and nothing will have changed.
The wildcard here– as should be obvious– is China. Will China countenance any kind of reunification if it allows for an American military presence in South Korea? I can’t imagine it. Will the U.S. agree to remove all of their military assets from South Korea before North Korea dismantles their nukes? Are they that stupid?
[whohit]North Korea’s Dance of the Seven Veils[/whohit]