With the election of Donald Trump, all the rules about political success and failure seem to be out the window. He should not have won the Republican primaries. He should never have won the election. He should not, right now, have 90% support among the Republican faithful.
Well, he didn’t actually win the election. He won the Electoral College and he won it with margins in a handful of states that are not really very convincing. His current approval ratings are not good. And take a look at realclearpolitics polling on congressional races going into the 2018 mid-terms: they don’t look good for the Republicans. In fact, they are stunningly, uniformly blue. The Democrats should win back control of the House. They might be able to take the Senate, but that appears unlikely.
Of course, polling showed that Clinton should have won the 2016 presidential election. And she did: by 3 million votes. But she lost the Electoral College.
Winning a significant majority of votes is not a trivial fact. Most American citizens did not believe that Trump would make a good president. In fact, given Clinton’s unpopularity, a very significant majority of Americans still preferred her.
My theory about politics– which is challenged, of course, by current events– is that a political establishment is in trouble when it’s avowed values and goals include contradictory elements that cannot co-exist sustain-ably. That’s a mouthful but it comes down to this: much of what Trump stands for is at odds with majority American values. And even what he says he stands for is at odds with a clear majority of American voters.
These contradictions can and often do coexist for a time– people have a monumental capacity to embrace hypocritical values (using a not-nice word for “incompatible”). When these two sets do collide, usually as the result of a crisis, one of them changes. In the 1960’s, it was the draft and the war in Viet Nam in contradiction with the growing perception that the war could not be won. It was also the ideals of equality and justice espoused by the Constitution in opposition to the treatment of black citizens. In the 1980’s and 90’s, budget deficits in opposition to welfare policies, and increasing crime in opposition to criminal sentencing. Under Obama, widespread social acceptance of homosexuality in opposition to the laws governing marriage. Under Bush Jr., the threat of terrorism in opposition to privacy rights.
Trump’s avowed policies on the environment, trade, international relations, and civil rights are ridiculously at odds with mainstream American values– which have not gone away, by the way. The Republicans have been revealed for what they always were: race-baiting elitist materialistic gun-mad turds. Until now, they’ve managed to disguise their real attitudes behind “nice”, “decent” candidates like George Bush Jr. and Mitt Romney. Trump has suddenly revealed the Republican Party for what it always really was.
You mean it’s actually okay to say that out loud?
I believe a solid majority of Americans are still solidly in favor of sound environmental policies, decent wages, Social Security and Medicare, civil rights, and immigration reform, including a path to citizenship.
So this contradiction should lead to a crisis which will force a resolution of some kind. What will the crisis look like? Massive budget deficits? Lay-offs by companies affected by Trump’s anti-trade actions? Polluted drinking water? Dramatic increases in carbon emissions coinciding with flooding of coastal cities? Violent demonstrations? North Korea firing another test missile? Putin invading Lithuania?
Maybe it will simpler than that. I don’t believe Trump will be able to resist the temptation to enrich himself through his position. I don’t think he understands why that’s illegal. I don’t think he understands what will happen when it all comes out.
Who knows.
[whohit]Internal Contradictions[/whohit]