Terrorism Response Paradox

Some reporting on the spurious “Toronto 18” terrorist cell makes the same mistake I believe most people make when it comes to understanding the motivations for a terror attack.  Rosie DiManno, for example, in the Toronto Star, asserts that the goal of the Toronto 18 Cell was to alter Canadian policy on the war in Afghanistan and free prisoners of war.

The members of the cell– goaded into making stupid comments by paid informant Mubin Shaikh–  served the interests of the government and police very well: they were crowing about how they stopped a deadly terrorist cell, even if the only actions these keystone jihadists ever took were at the direction of Mubin Shaikh (who conveniently forgot to record certain conversations).

But the goal of terrorism is not to win specific political objectives.  The terrorists know they are a minority and can never win a battle in direct confrontation with the powerful state they seek to overthrow.  That is why they are guerrillas, and not an army.  It is to provoke the government into over-reacting, thus provoking moderate sympathizers into joining, so the movement can win more recruits, until it is strong enough to win a direct confrontation.

Can it work?  What do you think the result of the Iraq invasion was, in terms of the size and scale and membership of ISIS?  Yes, it worked very well indeed.  Exactly according to the cookbook.  Well, even better: it did more for ISIS membership than Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi could have dreamed.

So every time there is a terror attack, what do the Western Nations do?  Exactly what the terrorists want them to do.  Over-react.  Scream headlines.  Mass hysteria.  A frantic urge to strike back, as hard and forcefully as possible.  Let’s get out there right now and help them recruit as many new adherents as possible.

Not everyone is on board with the stupid response.  I have been pleasantly surprised by the number of people who seem to understand this and express the intention of carrying on with their lives without fear or suspicion,  because they believe that they should, not only because it’s the best way to live, but because it may well be the most effective response to terrorism.  It diminishes their power.  It makes them look weak and ineffective.  It makes us look strong and confident.

[whohit]Terrorism Response Paradox[/whohit]